Chapter 5: The Pivotal Role Of Circumstance: Hot Tables & Bad Breaks Part 1
Here is my personal story that starts Chapter 5:
“Before my first trip to Atlantic City a fellow graduate student at MIT gave me advice on how to win at craps: ‘Find a hot table. When the table stops being hot, wait for another hot table.’ I’ll be damned if it didn’t work, for the most part. I had an amazing series of rolls. Everyone was cheering and this older guy in a brown leather jacket kept slapping me on the back every time I made a point. I remember the feeling of pure elation like it was yesterday. Before long the table turned, and it was really hard to stop playing. About an hour later I walked by the table again. It was empty. The guy in the leather jacket was walking away, his hands in his pockets and his eyes vacant. It was 20 years before I saw another table that hot.”
The probability experts are all over this type of thing, and they can tell you how much is luck, and which bets maximize the chance of winning. The odds of rolling for 30 minutes without losing can in fact be calculated, and will in fact occur from time to time. If you happen to be playing a hot table you are in for a great time because everyone is winning at that table. Of course a hot table is very much an exception – most of the time there will be a mixture of winning and losing, where the only control you have is whether to play, and which bets to make.
In my experience, going to work is a lot like a craps game. The day may go really well, or really badly, with most of the time somewhere in between.
And like a craps game, there are times when we feel like we are making it happen, when in reality things are beyond our control.